simulation of climate change in iran during 2071-2100 using precis regional climate modelling system
نویسندگان
چکیده
parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using precis regionalclimate modeling system in iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44×0.44°c in latitude and longitude under sresa2 and b2 scenarios. the dataset was based on hadam3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. theoverall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 was 5.3%. minimum errors were found to be overazari, north-central, and kordi regions. maximum and minimum monthly precipitation errors were found inseptember and may, respectively; but, minimum and maximum seasonal biases were found in spring and winter with-0.1 and -17.2% errors, respectively. results revealed a decrease in mean annual precipitation toward the end of the21st century by 7.8 mm in b2 scenario and 10.1 mm in a2 scenario with maximum regional decrease of 100 mm inthe southeast of the caspian sea. the decrease in precipitation was higher for a2 scenario, whereas it was minimumfor b1 scenario. mean annual temperature of iran during 2071-2100 would be projected to increase by 4.5-5.5°c ina2 scenario and 3-4°c in b2 scenarios compared to 1961-1990. it was shown that mean annual changes in runoffover the country were negligible both in a2 and b2 scenarios. maximum annual amount of runoff increase was foundover western part of the caspian sea, zagros and alborz mountain chains by 6.4-15. 8mm. results also indicated thatannual snowfall would decrease by the maximum amount of 22.9-23.7 cm over zagros and alborz mountain chains.
منابع مشابه
Simulation of climate change in Iran during 2071-2100 using PRECIS regional climate modelling system
Parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using PRECIS regionalclimate modeling system in Iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44×0.44°C in latitude and longitude under SRESA2 and B2 scenarios. The dataset was based on HadAM3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Theoverall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 w...
متن کاملRegional Climate Change Expected in Hungary for 2071-2100
Expected climate change estimations for the Carpathian basin and especially, Hungary, are summarized for the 2071-2100 period on the basis of the results from the project PRUDENCE. Different regional climate models (RCMs) used 50 km as the horizontal spatial resolution, and evaluated the A2 and B2 global emission scenarios. Results suggest that in case of temperature, a warming trend is evident...
متن کاملSpatial analysis of climate change in Iran
Introduction Climate change is the greatest price society is paying for decades of environmental neglect. The impact of global warming is most visible in the rising threat of climate-related natural disasters. Globally, meteorological disasters more than doubled, from an average of forty-five events a year to almost 120 events a year (Vinod, 2017). Climate change refers to changes in the distr...
متن کاملRegional climate modelling
A new technique for climate simulations and projections has emerged over the past 15 years that allows to reach unprecedented spatial resolution at an affordable computing cost: regional climate modelling. The technique has matured and several groups around the world are participating in model intercomparison projects and collaborating in coordinated endeavour to produce ensemble climate-change...
متن کاملAnalysis of Climate Change Scenarios for the Carpathian Basin Based on Numerical Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Precis
متن کامل
Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran
We simulate the effect of climate change on water requirements of cold seasonwheat in various climatic zones of Iran. The research considers both observedclimate (temperature and precipitation) changes during recent decades (1960-2009)based on instrumental records and projected future changes to 2100 based on theMAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 compound model. 20 General Circulation models are usedbased on a...
متن کاملمنابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
desertناشر: international desert research center (idrc), university of tehran
ISSN 2008-0875
دوره 20
شماره 2 2015
میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com
copyright © 2015-2023